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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Premier League · Round 8
Qarabag
Neftchi Baku PFC
16:00Sat
50%
25%
Draw25%

Qarabag are the stronger side

WWDWW

last 5 games

LWWWD

last 5 games

Stadium
Azersun Arena, Baku · 5,800 seats
Managers
Gurban Gurbanov · Yuriy Vernydub
Odds have moved in the last 24h — not advice, just worth knowing before you bet: Over/Under: Under 1.5 4.00→4.20 (+5%)
Preview

Qarabag are 3rd of 12 in Premier League 26/27, with 16 points from 6 games played.

Neftchi Baku PFC are 1st of 12, with 16 points from 7 games played.

Over their last 10, Qarabag scored 1.5 and conceded 0.9 a game on average, and both teams scored in 40% of those.

Neftchi Baku PFC scored 2.1 and conceded 1 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 40%.

Qarabag last played Imisli FK (away) and won 2-0.

Neftchi Baku PFC last played Sabah Masazir (at home) and drew 0-0.

Head-to-head, Qarabag has 5W 0D 1L from the last 6 meetings, averaging 3 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Qarabag
4Win1Draw0Loss
Premier League
31 Aug 2026 · 17:15
SumqayitS
0-1
QQarabag
Premier League
06 Sep 2026 · 17:15
QarabagQ
3-2
AAraz
Premier League
13 Sep 2026 · 16:00
ZiraZ
1-1
QQarabag
Neftchi Baku PFC
3Win1Draw1Loss
Premier League
30 Aug 2026 · 17:15
ZiraZ
1-0
BBaku
Premier League
05 Sep 2026 · 17:30
BakuB
4-1
SSafa
Premier League
11 Sep 2026 · 13:30
Imisli FKIF
2-3
BBaku

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
20.400
40.830.6

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
81.630.6
10240.8
Events
Team

Baku didn't draw in 14 of their last 15 matches

Qarabag or Neftchi Baku PFC (no draw) · 74% chance
14 / 15
No draws

Baku didn't draw in 14 of their last 15 home matches

Qarabag or Neftchi Baku PFC (no draw) · 74% chance
14 / 15
No draws

Baku haven't lost in 14 of their last 15 away matches

Neftchi Baku PFC or draw · 51% chance
14 / 15
Unbeaten

Baku scored in 14 of their last 15 away matches

Neftchi Baku PFC over 0.5 goals · 70% chanceNeftchi Baku PFC over 1.5 goals · 34% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

Qarabag didn't draw in 13 of their last 15 matches

Qarabag or Neftchi Baku PFC (no draw) · 74% chance
13 / 15
No draws

13 of Qarabag's last 15 matches had over 8.5 corners

13 / 15
Corners: +8.5

Qarabag didn't draw in 13 of their last 15 home matches

Qarabag or Neftchi Baku PFC (no draw) · 74% chance
13 / 15
No draws

Qarabag scored in 13 of their last 15 home matches

Qarabag over 0.5 goals · 83% chanceQarabag over 1.5 goals · 53% chance
13 / 15
Goals scored

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of Qarabag and Neftchi Baku PFC in Premier League

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
G
Pts
PPG
Last matches
1
NBNeftchi Baku PFC
7
5
1
1
18:5
16
2.29
DWWWL
2
SMSabah Masazir
6
5
1
0
14:1
16
2.67
DWWWW
3
QFQarabag FK
6
5
1
0
11:4
16
2.67
WWDWW
4
TTTuran Tovuz
7
4
2
1
7:4
14
2
WWDWL
5
SFShamakhi FK
8
3
4
1
12:9
13
1.62
WDWDW
6
ZFZira FK
7
3
2
2
8:9
11
1.57
DLDLW
7
FKFK Kapaz
6
3
1
2
6:7
10
1.67
WDWLW
8
SFSumqayit FK
7
2
2
3
10:10
8
1.14
WWDDL
9
IFImisli FK
7
1
1
5
6:13
4
0.57
LLLLW
10
GFGabala FK
7
1
1
5
3:11
4
0.57
LLLWD
11
SSafa
8
1
0
7
4:15
3
0.38
LLLLL
12
ANAraz Nakhchivan PFK
8
0
2
6
6:17
2
0.25
LLLDL
Champions League Qualification Conference League Qualification Relegation Playoffs Relegation

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku PFC: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
Qarabag
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Neftchi Baku PFC
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
Qarabag
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Neftchi Baku PFC
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
Qarabag
Under
70% · 7 of 10
Over
30% · 3 of 10
Neftchi Baku PFC
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
Qarabag
Under
70% · 7 of 10
Over
30% · 3 of 10
Neftchi Baku PFC
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
Qarabag
Under
80% · 8 of 10
Over
20% · 2 of 10
Neftchi Baku PFC
Under
60% · 6 of 10
Over
40% · 4 of 10

The bar shows the share of that team's matches. The bigger option is highlighted. These are past results, not predictions.

Our three best bets
Qarabag or draw
76% chance
Qarabag (draw no bet)
68% chance
Under 3.5 · total goals
66% chance
Best value
Qarabag to win
51% chance
Under 3.5 · total goals
66% chance
Qarabag
Last 10 games
1.5
scored a game
0.9
conceded a game
Both teams scored40% of games
Over 2.5 goals30% of games
Kept a clean sheet50% of games
Neftchi Baku PFC
Last 10 games
2.1
scored a game
1
conceded a game
Both teams scored40% of games
Over 2.5 goals60% of games
Kept a clean sheet40% of games
No injury list for this league, so absences are unknown — this isn't the same as "no injuries".
Qarabag
Neftchi Baku PFC
Premier League
18 Sep 2026 · 16:45
QarabagQ
1-0
SSafa
Premier League
11 Oct 2026 · 13:00
Imisli FKIF
0-2
QQarabag
Goals scored
8
1.6 per game
Goals conceded
3
0.6 per game
Premier League
18 Sep 2026 · 14:30
GabalaG
0-3
BBaku
Premier League
09 Oct 2026 · 16:30
BakuB
0-0
SMSabah Masazir
Goals scored
10
2 per game
Goals conceded
4
0.8 per game