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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

League One · Round 11
Milton Keynes Dons
Luton
12:30Sat
28%
46%
Draw26%

Luton are the stronger side

DDWWL

last 5 games

LLWWW

last 5 games

Stadium
Stadium MK, Milton Keynes · 30,500 seats
Managers
Paul Warne · Jack Wilshere
Preview

Milton Keynes Dons are 23rd of 24 in League One 26/27, with 6 points from 8 games played.

Luton are 14th of 24, with 11 points from 8 games played.

Over their last 10, Milton Keynes Dons scored 2 and conceded 1.7 a game on average, and both teams scored in 80% of those.

Luton scored 2.3 and conceded 1.8 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 60%.

Milton Keynes Dons last played Reading (at home) and lost 1-5.

Luton last played Wycombe (away) and won 4-1.

Head-to-head, Milton Keynes Dons has 0W 0D 3L from the last 3 meetings, averaging 3 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Milton Keynes Dons
2Win2Draw1Loss
League One
12 Sep 2026 · 15:00
Milton KeynesMK
1-1
PPeterborough
League One
17 Sep 2026 · 20:00
WimbledonW
0-0
MKMilton Keynes
EFL Trophy, Southern Group H
22 Sep 2026 · 19:00
Milton KeynesMK
4-1
CCrawley
Luton
3Win0Draw2Loss
League One
10 Sep 2026 · 20:00
StevenageS
2-1
LLuton
League One
19 Sep 2026 · 15:00
LutonL
0-1
BBradford
EFL Trophy, Southern Group D
22 Sep 2026 · 19:00
LutonL
6-0
ITIpswich Town

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
61.210.2
5120.4

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
132.681.6
163.281.6
Events
Team

15 of Luton's last 15 away matches had over 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals · 80% chance
15 / 15
Total goals: +1.5

14 of Luton's last 15 home matches had a goal in the 1st half

Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half · 73% chance
14 / 15
Total goals 1st Half: +0.5

Luton scored in 14 of their last 15 away matches

Luton over 0.5 goals · 81% chanceLuton over 1.5 goals · 50% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

14 of Luton's last 15 away matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 81% chance
14 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

14 of Luton's last 15 matches had over 1.5 goals in League One

Over 1.5 goals · 80% chance
14 / 15
Total goals: +1.5

14 of Luton's last 15 matches had a goal in the 1st half in League One

Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half · 73% chance
14 / 15
Total goals 1st Half: +0.5

Luton scored in 14 of their last 15 matches in League One

Luton over 0.5 goals · 81% chanceLuton over 1.5 goals · 50% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

Milton Keynes haven't lost in 13 of their last 15 home matches

Milton Keynes Dons or draw · 54% chance
13 / 15
Unbeaten

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of Milton Keynes Dons and Luton in League One

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
G
Pts
PPG
Last matches
1
PAPlymouth Argyle
10
6
1
3
18:12
19
1.9
WWLWW
2
BCBradford City FC
9
5
2
2
8:5
17
1.89
DDWWW
3
SCStockport County FC
9
5
1
3
20:11
16
1.78
WWDLW
4
HTHuddersfield Town
9
4
4
1
16:9
16
1.78
DWLDD
5
CUCambridge United
9
4
4
1
14:11
16
1.78
WDDWD
6
RFReading FC
9
4
3
2
22:11
15
1.67
WDDWL
7
OUOxford United
8
4
3
1
16:9
15
1.88
DWDWW
8
SWSheffield Wednesday
8
4
3
1
15:8
15
1.88
DDDWW
9
SFStevenage FC
8
3
3
2
12:8
12
1.5
WLWWD
10
BABurton Albion
10
3
3
4
14:16
12
1.2
LLWDL
11
MTMansfield Town
9
3
3
3
13:15
12
1.33
DWDDL
12
AWAFC Wimbledon
9
3
3
3
7:10
12
1.33
LDDWW
13
LOLeyton Orient London
9
3
2
4
13:11
11
1.22
DLWLD
14
LTLuton Town
8
3
2
3
16:15
11
1.38
WLLDW
15
WWWycombe Wanderers
9
2
4
3
14:20
10
1.11
LDWWD
16
DRDoncaster Rovers
8
2
3
3
9:9
9
1.12
WWLLD
17
LCLeicester City
8
2
3
3
10:14
9
1.12
LDWLW
18
BFBlackpool FC
8
2
2
4
13:14
8
1
LLDLL
19
BFBarnsley FC
8
2
2
4
8:15
8
1
LDLLW
20
PUPeterborough United
9
2
2
5
7:14
8
0.89
WLLDL
21
BFBromley FC
8
2
2
4
9:20
8
1
LWDLL
22
NCNotts County
8
1
4
3
8:11
7
0.88
LLLDD
23
MKMilton Keynes Dons
8
0
6
2
9:15
6
0.75
LDDDL
24
WAWigan Athletic
8
1
1
6
5:13
4
0.5
LLDLW
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation

Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
Milton Keynes Dons
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
Luton
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
Milton Keynes Dons
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
Luton
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
Milton Keynes Dons
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Luton
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
Milton Keynes Dons
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Luton
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
Milton Keynes Dons
Under
60% · 6 of 10
Over
40% · 4 of 10
Luton
Under
60% · 6 of 10
Over
40% · 4 of 10

The bar shows the share of that team's matches. The bigger option is highlighted. These are past results, not predictions.

Our three best bets
Milton Keynes Dons or Luton
74% chance
Under 3.5 · total goals
65% chance
Luton (draw no bet)
62% chance
Best value
Under 3.5 · total goals
65% chance
Luton (draw no bet)
62% chance
Milton Keynes Dons
Last 10 games
2
scored a game
1.7
conceded a game
Both teams scored80% of games
Over 2.5 goals60% of games
Kept a clean sheet20% of games
Luton
Last 10 games
2.3
scored a game
1.8
conceded a game
Both teams scored60% of games
Over 2.5 goals60% of games
Kept a clean sheet20% of games
No injury list for this league, so absences are unknown — this isn't the same as "no injuries".
Milton Keynes Dons
Luton
EFL Trophy, Southern Group H
06 Oct 2026 · 19:00
Milton KeynesMK
7-1
BBrentford
League One
10 Oct 2026 · 15:00
Milton KeynesMK
1-5
RReading
Goals scored
13
2.6 per game
Goals conceded
8
1.6 per game
EFL Trophy, Southern Group D
03 Oct 2026 · 15:00
ColchesterC
4-5
LLuton
League One
10 Oct 2026 · 15:00
WycombeW
1-4
LLuton
Goals scored
16
3.2 per game
Goals conceded
8
1.6 per game