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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Championship · Round 11
Derby County
Stoke City
15:00Sat
32%
40%
Draw28%

Stoke City are the stronger side

LLDDL

last 5 games

DWWWL

last 5 games

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby · 33,597 seats
Referee
Oliver Langford (England)
Managers
John Eustace · Mark Robins
Preview

Derby County are 23rd of 24 in Championship 26/27, with 6 points from 10 games played.

Stoke City are 9th of 24, with 16 points from 10 games played.

Over their last 10, Derby County scored 0.9 and conceded 1.9 a game on average, and both teams scored in 60% of those.

Stoke City scored 2.1 and conceded 2 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 80%.

Derby County last played QPR (away) and lost 1-4.

Stoke City last played Middlesbrough (at home) and lost 2-3.

Head-to-head, Derby County has 3W 1D 2L from the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Derby County
0Win2Draw3Loss
Championship
09 Sep 2026 · 19:45
DerbyD
0-1
WBWest Bromwich
Championship
12 Sep 2026 · 12:30
DerbyD
1-2
BBirmingham
Championship
19 Sep 2026 · 15:00
BurnleyB
1-1
DDerby
Stoke City
3Win1Draw1Loss
Championship
08 Sep 2026 · 19:45
CardiffC
1-1
SStoke
Championship
12 Sep 2026 · 15:00
WatfordW
1-2
SStoke
Championship
19 Sep 2026 · 12:30
StokeS
2-1
SUSheffield United

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
20.461.2
30.600

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
40.891.8
91.871.4
Events
Team

15 of Derby's last 15 away matches had a goal in the 1st half

Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half · 68% chance
15 / 15
Total goals 1st Half: +0.5

15 of Derby's last 15 matches had a goal in the 1st half in Championship

Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half · 68% chance
15 / 15
Total goals 1st Half: +0.5

Stoke scored in 15 of their last 15 matches

Stoke City over 0.5 goals · 76% chanceStoke City over 1.5 goals · 41% chance
15 / 15
Goals scored

14 of Derby's last 15 matches had a goal in the 1st half

Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half · 68% chance
14 / 15
Total goals 1st Half: +0.5

Derby conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches

Stoke City over 0.5 goals · 76% chance
14 / 15
Goals conceded

Derby didn't draw in 14 of their last 15 away matches in Championship

Derby County or Stoke City (no draw) · 72% chance
14 / 15
No draws

Stoke scored in 14 of their last 15 home matches

Stoke City over 0.5 goals · 76% chanceStoke City over 1.5 goals · 41% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

Stoke conceded in 14 of their last 15 away matches

Derby County over 0.5 goals · 71% chance
14 / 15
Goals conceded

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of Derby County and Stoke City in Championship

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
G
Pts
PPG
Last matches
1
SCSwansea City
10
7
2
1
16:7
23
2.3
WWWWL
2
MFMiddlesbrough FC
10
6
3
1
20:14
21
2.1
WWDDW
3
WHWest Ham United
10
5
4
1
29:12
19
1.9
WDDWW
4
BCBirmingham City
10
4
5
1
17:11
17
1.7
WWDWL
5
QPQueens Park Rangers
10
4
5
1
15:9
17
1.7
WDDDD
6
WWWolverhampton Wanderers
10
5
2
3
18:15
17
1.7
WLLWW
7
WBWest Bromwich Albion
10
5
2
3
12:10
17
1.7
WLLDW
8
SFSouthampton FC
10
6
2
2
21:10
16
1.6
WWLWW
9
SCStoke City
10
5
1
4
17:16
16
1.6
LWWWD
10
BRBlackburn Rovers
10
4
3
3
15:13
15
1.5
WWDWL
11
MFMillwall FC
10
4
2
4
16:16
14
1.4
LWDDL
12
BCBristol City
10
4
2
4
12:14
14
1.4
LDWLL
13
CACharlton Athletic
10
3
5
2
10:13
14
1.4
DDLDD
14
BWBolton Wanderers
10
4
1
5
15:18
13
1.3
WLWWL
15
SUSheffield United
10
3
3
4
14:14
12
1.2
LWLLW
16
PFPortsmouth FC
9
3
2
4
12:13
11
1.22
WLDDW
17
WAWrexham AFC
10
2
5
3
11:15
11
1.1
LDWLD
18
LCLincoln City
10
3
2
5
7:17
11
1.1
LLLWW
19
CCCardiff City
10
2
4
4
16:15
10
1
WLWLD
20
NCNorwich City
10
3
0
7
17:20
9
0.9
LLLLW
21
BFBurnley FC
11
1
5
5
16:21
8
0.73
LDWDL
22
WFWatford FC
10
2
2
6
8:19
8
0.8
LLLLW
23
DCDerby County
10
1
3
6
9:19
6
0.6
LDDLL
24
PNPreston North End
10
1
1
8
8:20
4
0.4
LLDLL
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Qualification Playoffs Relegation

Derby County vs Stoke City: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
Derby County
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Stoke City
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
Derby County
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Stoke City
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
Derby County
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Stoke City
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
Derby County
Under
80% · 8 of 10
Over
20% · 2 of 10
Stoke City
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
Derby County
Under
90% · 9 of 10
Over
10% · 1 of 10
Stoke City
Under
70% · 7 of 10
Over
30% · 3 of 10

The bar shows the share of that team's matches. The bigger option is highlighted. These are past results, not predictions.

Our three best bets
Over 1.5 · total goals
74% chance
Derby County or Stoke City
73% chance
Stoke City (draw no bet)
56% chance
Best value
Over 1.5 · total goals
74% chance
Derby County or Stoke City
73% chance
Derby County
Last 10 games
0.9
scored a game
1.9
conceded a game
Both teams scored60% of games
Over 2.5 goals60% of games
Kept a clean sheet10% of games
Stoke City
Last 10 games
2.1
scored a game
2
conceded a game
Both teams scored80% of games
Over 2.5 goals80% of games
Kept a clean sheet20% of games
Derby County

Nobody listed.

Stoke City

Nobody listed.

Championship
10 Oct 2026 · 15:00
DerbyD
1-1
WWrexham
Championship
14 Oct 2026 · 19:45
QPRQ
4-1
DDerby
Goals scored
4
0.8 per game
Goals conceded
9
1.8 per game
Championship
10 Oct 2026 · 15:00
BoltonB
1-2
SStoke
Championship
13 Oct 2026 · 20:00
StokeS
2-3
MMiddlesbrough
Goals scored
9
1.8 per game
Goals conceded
7
1.4 per game