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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Serie A · Round 7
AC Milan
Atalanta
17:00Sun
54%
22%
Draw24%

AC Milan are the stronger side

DLWDW

last 5 games

LLLWW

last 5 games

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan · 80,018 seats
Referee
Daniele Chiffi (Italy)
Managers
Ruben Amorim · Maurizio Sarri
Odds have moved in the last 24h — not advice, just worth knowing before you bet: 1X2: Away 4.36→4.50 (+3.2%)
Preview

AC Milan are 6th of 20 in Serie A 26/27, with 12 points from 6 games played.

Atalanta are 10th of 20, with 9 points from 6 games played.

Over their last 10, AC Milan scored 1.9 and conceded 1.2 a game on average, and both teams scored in 50% of those.

Atalanta scored 1.3 and conceded 0.9 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 50%.

AC Milan last played Salzburg (away) and won 4-0.

Atalanta last played Pafos (at home) and won 3-1.

Head-to-head, AC Milan has 0W 2D 4L from the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.67 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

AC Milan
2Win2Draw1Loss
Serie A
12 Sep 2026 · 17:00
LazioL
2-2
MMilan
UEFA Europa League
16 Sep 2026 · 20:00
MilanM
0-2
SBSL Benfica
Serie A
20 Sep 2026 · 19:45
MilanM
3-0
LLecce
Atalanta
2Win0Draw3Loss
Serie A
05 Sep 2026 · 19:45
RomaR
2-1
AAtalanta
Serie A
12 Sep 2026 · 19:45
AtalantaA
1-2
CCagliari
Serie A
20 Sep 2026 · 17:00
JuventusJ
2-0
AAtalanta

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
30.630.6
71.430.6

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
10251
81.681.6
Events
Team

15 of Milan's last 15 matches had over 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals · 79% chance
15 / 15
Total goals: +1.5

15 of Milan's last 15 matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 80% chance
15 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

14 of Atalanta's last 15 away matches had over 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals · 79% chance
14 / 15
Total goals: +1.5

Milan scored in 13 of their last 15 matches

13 / 15
Goals scored

13 of Milan's last 15 matches had over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half

Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half · 48% chance
13 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +1.5

Milan drew or saw over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 15 matches

A draw or over 2.5 goals · 73% chance
13 / 15
Drew or over 2.5 goals

13 of Milan's last 15 home matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 80% chance
13 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

13 of Milan's last 15 away matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 80% chance
13 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of AC Milan and Atalanta in Serie A

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
G
Pts
PPG
Last matches
1
IMInter Milano
6
5
1
0
18:8
16
2.67
WDWWW
2
LRLazio Rome
6
5
1
0
11:4
16
2.67
WWDWW
3
ARAS Roma
6
4
2
0
14:3
14
2.33
DDWWW
4
FCFrosinone Calcio
7
4
1
2
13:9
13
1.86
WLWDW
5
CCCagliari Calcio
6
4
1
1
6:3
13
2.17
DWWWL
6
AMAC Milan
6
3
3
0
11:5
12
2
DWDDW
7
JTJuventus Turin
6
3
2
1
9:5
11
1.83
DWLDW
8
C1Como 1907
6
3
2
1
9:6
11
1.83
DLWWW
9
SNSSC Napoli
6
3
1
2
10:6
10
1.67
WDWLL
10
ABAtalanta BC
6
3
0
3
8:8
9
1.5
WLLLW
11
SCSassuolo Calcio
7
2
2
3
12:14
8
1.14
LDLWD
12
TFTorino FC
6
2
1
3
7:9
7
1.17
WDLWL
13
ULUS Lecce
6
2
0
4
6:12
6
1
LLWLL
14
BFBologna FC
6
1
2
3
5:7
5
0.83
WDLDL
15
UCUdinese Calcio
6
1
1
4
9:13
4
0.67
LLLLW
16
AMAC Monza
6
1
1
4
9:15
4
0.67
LWLDL
17
GCGenoa CFC
6
1
1
4
5:11
4
0.67
WLDLL
18
PCParma Calcio
6
1
1
4
4:10
4
0.67
LWLDL
19
AFACF Fiorentina
6
1
1
4
7:14
4
0.67
LDWLL
20
VFVenezia FC
6
0
0
6
5:16
0
0
LLLLL
Champions League UEFA Europa League Conference League Qualification Relegation

AC Milan vs Atalanta: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
AC Milan
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Atalanta
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
AC Milan
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Atalanta
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
AC Milan
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Atalanta
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
AC Milan
Under
70% · 7 of 10
Over
30% · 3 of 10
Atalanta
Under
80% · 8 of 10
Over
20% · 2 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
AC Milan
Under
90% · 9 of 10
Over
10% · 1 of 10
Atalanta
Under
100% · 10 of 10
Over
0% · 0 of 10

The bar shows the share of that team's matches. The bigger option is highlighted. These are past results, not predictions.

Our three best bets
AC Milan or Atalanta
75% chance
AC Milan (draw no bet)
72% chance
Under 3.5 · total goals
67% chance
Best value
AC Milan to win
54% chance
Under 3.5 · total goals
67% chance
AC Milan
Last 10 games
1.9
scored a game
1.2
conceded a game
Both teams scored50% of games
Over 2.5 goals60% of games
Kept a clean sheet30% of games
Atalanta
Last 10 games
1.3
scored a game
0.9
conceded a game
Both teams scored50% of games
Over 2.5 goals50% of games
Kept a clean sheet40% of games
AC Milan
  • Out · Alexis Saelemaekers (Midfielder) — Injured
  • Out · Matteo Gabbia (Defender) — Injured
Atalanta
  • Out · Isak Hien (Defender) — Injured
  • Out · Kamaldeen Sulemana (Forward) — Injured
  • Out · Odilon Kossounou (Defender) — Injured
  • TPOut · Thomas Pompei (Goalkeeper) — Injured
  • Out · Giorgio Scalvini (Defender) — Injured
Serie A
11 Oct 2026 · 17:00
SassuoloS
1-1
MMilan
UEFA Europa League
15 Oct 2026 · 17:45
SalzburgS
0-4
MMilan
Goals scored
10
2 per game
Goals conceded
5
1 per game
Serie A
12 Oct 2026 · 17:30
AtalantaA
3-1
VVenezia
UEFA Conference League
15 Oct 2026 · 20:00
AtalantaA
3-1
PPafos
Goals scored
8
1.6 per game
Goals conceded
8
1.6 per game